000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N85W TO 06N90W TO 10N106W TO LOW PRES 1011 
MB NEAR 10N111W TO 08.5N115W TO 11N125W TO LOW PRES 1013 MB NEAR 
10N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA CHARACTERIZED BY 
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED ON A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 41N135W. A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NRN 
U.S. ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND THEN W-SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO 25N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND 
HONDURAS AND EXTENDED N AND NW TO THIS MID TO UPPER TROUGH... 
YIELDING W TO SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THE TROUGH TO 10N AND W 
OF 120W...WITH FLOW BECOMING S TO SW BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. A 
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 02N126W WITH 
THE CIRCULATION SPANNING BOTH SIDES OF THE EQUATOR. AN UPPER 
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NW OF THIS WAS AIDING IN 
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT 
10N131W. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ INVOF 110W WAS CREATING 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 108W AND 115W.

SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL 
MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND BEGIN TO 
FLATTEN AND WEAKEN THIS STRONG RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS 
AND THEN BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF 
THE WEEK. 

PRESENTLY...A 1042 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE 
NEAR 40N140W AND EXTENDED S TO THE NEAR TROPICS AND SE TO 
22N117W. THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THIS LARGE 
HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE TROPICS WAS MAINTAINING 
FRESH NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT GENERALLY N OF 11N AND W OF 125W... 
WITH N TO NE WINDS 25-30 KT INDICATED BY AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS 
N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. NE WIND SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA 
WAS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 9 TO 13 
FT...AND 14 TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS. THIS SURFACE 
HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN...FLATTEN...AND SHIFT SLOWLY W 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT INDUCED 
TRADEWINDS TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. 


NLY FLOW IS DRAINING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
MORNING...LIKELY AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT...AND IS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 12 HOURS. NWLY FLOW OF 20-25 
KT BLOWING THROUGH N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS 
BEGUN TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT THIS MORNING...AND IS ALSO 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 12 HOURS. 

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS AGAIN EVOLVED DURING THE PAST FEW 
DAYS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FAR TROPICAL EPAC...WITH SW 
WINDS TO 20 KT OCCURRING N OF 03N AND E OF 86W THIS MORNING. 
THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT 
E OF 82W BY 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING