000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N87W TO 06N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 
11N123W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N114W TO NEAR 27N136W 
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 70 TO 90 
KT EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ALL 
THE WAY TO NEAR 11N129W. SW FLOW ALOFT S OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AND N OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 39N137W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA 
NEAR 32N135W AND CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 16N110W. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES EXIST N OF 12N AND W OF 124W WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8 TO 
12 FT. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL SHRINK TO JUST THE FAR NW PORTION 
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE RETRACTS TO THE N.

1011 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N109W. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW 
ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON AS 
THE LOW MOVES NW AROUND 5 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITH THIS LOW AND NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 07N87W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NE 
TOWARD PANAMA DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING. THIS SOUTHERLY 
FLOW IS CURRENTLY 20 KT IN THE FAR E PORTION OF THE AREA ROUGHLY 
FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS AND AS REPORTED BY SHIP ZCDG4 OFF OF THE COAST OF 
WESTERN PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 
MON AS LOW PRES ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA JUST 
N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH FRESH NE SEAS IN THE 
AREA OF TRADES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A NEW SET OF N TO NE SWELL 
GENERATED BY GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST WILL 
PROPAGATE S OF 32N TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT ALONG AND 
N OF 30N BY 00 UTC MON. THIS SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL MOVE N OF THE 
EQUATOR INTO THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY 00 UTC MON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION 
BETWEEN A RIDGE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING 
JUST INLAND OF THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EARLIER 
WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED 20 KT NW TO N WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS 
THE TROUGHING DISSIPATES BY 00 UTC MON.

GAP WINDS...
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AS WAS PREDICTED 
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT 
IXTEPEC MEXICO CONTINUE TO REPORT 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS. THESE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY 18 UTC SUN.

$$
LEWITSKY