000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N90W 6N97W 10N107W 10N120W 8N130W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 8N E 
OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER TO 
27N126W TO NEAR 24N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA N OF 23N. A WEAK 
75-100 KT JET STREAM SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
25N117W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 12N85W TO 
17N123W. SW TO W FLOW ALOFT S OF JET AND N OF THE ABOVE UPPER 
RIDGE IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.  

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 7N88W 
DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N109W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
13N107W THROUGH THE LOW TO 7N112W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 
105W AND 111W. THIS LOW NEAR STATIONARY WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT 
WINDS OVER THE SE QUADRANT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 12 FT AND 
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

$$
PAW