000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N85W 6N95W 11N105W 9N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W-112W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 134-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 32N20W TO 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N138W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 23N-30N. A 75-95 KT 
JET STREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N122W ACROSS 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIAN INTO NW MEXICO. SW-W FLOW ALONG AND S 
OF JET IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. SE OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N103W WITH RIDGE NW 
TO 24N116W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. 

A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N109W...1012 MB. 
THE LOW IS DRIFTING W WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SE 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 12N122W TO 9N106W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH 
GRADIENT FOR 20 KT ELY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NW SWELLS TO 
12 FT.

$$
DGS