000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT NOV 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N88W TO 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N109W TO 10N124W TO 09N129W TO 11N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS REGION TO FAR NW MEXICO NEAR 32N114W TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 23N137W. DRY AND STABLE AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W THROUGH 14N105W TO 15N127W. A WIDE SWATH OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE ITCZ AROUND THE W AND N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 130W DUE TO MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N135W AND CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 15N111W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXIST N OF 11N AND W OF 123W WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 08N87W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 08N110W THROUGH 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N109W TO 13N105W. MODEL GUIDANCE DEEPENS THE LOW BY 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS TO 9 FT. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W FROM APPROXIMATELY 18 UTC SAT THROUGH 00 UTC MON AS LOW PRES ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA. NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 16 TO 17 SECONDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. THIS SWELL IS COMMINGLING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS GENERATED BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TRADES. A NEW SET OF N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OFF OF THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROPAGATE DOWN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING JUST INLAND OF THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 25 KT NW TO N WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF WHILE AN EARLIER JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF BY 18 UTC SUN. GAP WINDS... LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO CONTINUE TO REPORT 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BE FANNING INTO A SMALL NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 15N95W. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HI-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG THIS EVENT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 18 UTC SAT. $$ LEWITSKY