000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N82W 5N92W 10N111W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W 
AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N78W TO 6N80W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER 
ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N135W WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT 
NOTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N E OF 120W TO ACROSS N 
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO ALONG 16N TO 120W DRAWING A WIDE SWATH OF 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO OVER MEXICO AND 
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 

A WEAK 1010 MB QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 8N86W. A SERIES OF THREE SURFACE TROUGHS 
ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN MOST IS FROM 
12N105W TO 6N106W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM OF 10N BETWEEN 104W TO 108W. THE MIDDLE TROUGH IS FROM 
15N119W TO 7N121W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. THE 
WESTERN MOST SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 13N138W TO 6N104W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 136W AND 141W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 105W PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GIVE THE AREA 
FRESH WINDS AND HIGH SWELLS. 

$$
PAW