000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N85W 5N90W 11N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 111W-116W 
AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ARIZONA NEW 
MEXICO BORDER ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 22N138W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS 
NOTED ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A 45-50 KT WIND 
MAX EXTENDS FROM 25N138W TO 17N120W TO THE W COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR 22N106W. WIDE SWATH OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE EXISTS 
WITHIN 540 NM SE OF THE WIND MAX IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ 
TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 
17N115W. 

A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N105W. THE 
LOW IS DRIFTING W WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SE 
QUADRANT. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ALSO ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE FIRST TROUGH IS FROM 7N-15N ALONG 105W ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-13N. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM 
15N117W TO 10N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION 
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N-15N. A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
13N136W TO 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
115W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR 20 KT 
ELY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NW SWELLS TO 12 FT.

$$
DGS