000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 06N92W TO 09N104W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N113W 
TO DEVELOPING CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 0N135W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N 
OF AXIS E OF 130W.  WIDE SWATH OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE E 
OF AXIS BRING ALL THAT MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO GULF 
OF MEXICO.  DOWNSTREAM CARIBBEAN RIDGE MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS 
OVER EXTREME E PART OF BASIN.  MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR WEAK TROUGH 10N104W 
WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW PRES.  NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION NOTED NOR EXPECTED WITH LOW PRES.     

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 33N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 18N110W 
PRESSING GRADIENT AGAINST LOWER PRES NEAR ITCZ.  FRESH TO STRONG 
NE BREEZE FROM 10N TO 27N W OF 120W EXPECTED TO STRETCH THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.  

RIDGE ALSO FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COAST REACHING BAJA PENINSULA AND ADDING MORE SWELLS TO THE 
ALREADY HIGH SEA HEIGHTS IN BASIN.  GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALSO GET 
SOME STRONG NW WINDS FRI AND SAT. 

SHORT TERM SPURT OF FRESH BREEZE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO 
THE PRES DIFFERENTIAL EXPECTED TO LAST LESS THAN 24 HRS.  LARGE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST WATERS W OF 100W SPREADING 
SE TO 10N. 

$$
WALLY BARNES