000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102127 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED NOV 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N87W TO 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N102W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N108W TO 11N116W TO 11N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 22N106W EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 10N140W WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS PREVALENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A JET CORE WITH PEAK SPEEDS OF 60 TO 70 KT IS ADVECTING A SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO JUST SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N135W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 20N110W. FRESH NE TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 17N TO 25N W OF 123W WILL EXPAND TO THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 11N W OF 125W BY 48 HOURS AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE N WATERS AND AS THE HIGH CENTER STRENGTHENS TO 1037 MB. NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W. THIS SWELL IS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL OVER THE AREA S OF 20N. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NEW SETS OF NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 09N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A 1542 UTC ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SHIP OBS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A PAIR OF 1009 MB LOW PRES AREAS ARE POSITIONED NEAR 09N102W AND 09N106W RESPECTIVELY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE EASTERN LOW. NO DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOWS IS ANTICIPATED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE N WATERS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND 12 UTC THU THEN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HI-RES INDICATE A WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W. $$ LEWITSKY