000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N85W 
TO 06N92W TO 11N116W TO 09N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N139W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 19N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY 
FROM 11N TO 27N W OF 122W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS 
THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE FRESH TRADES HAVE INCREASED SURFACE 
LATENT ENERGY FLUX AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ WHICH HAS 
HELPED IGNITE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 118W. 

NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 
115W...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER WHERE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 
8 FT. THESE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE TRADE WIND SWELL IN THE 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. THIS 
SWELL IS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 115W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FURTHER BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE 
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH 
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A LOCALLY 
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT BY THU AFTERNOON. THE 
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT N OF 28N OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 36 HOURS...AND 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
AL