000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LOW
PRES NEAR 09N85W TO 05N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N105W TO 09N116W 
TO 10N120W TO 08N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N140W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 27N W OF 
120W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WITH FRESH TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA. 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE FLARING ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 
118W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 15N113W TO 09N117W. 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH 
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. A 
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA 
HAS MOVED W OF 140W. MIXED NE AND NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER WHERE HEIGHTS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.
THIS SWELL IS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
MAINLY S OF 10N.

E OF 110W...
A WEAK 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 09N85W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. A 
1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 09N105W. ONLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITH THIS LOW. SW CROSS EQUATORIAL 
FLOW S OF ITCZ REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY 48 HOURS. MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT REMAINS S OF 09N W OF 95W. THIS SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AROUND 06 UTC. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT N OF 28N ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BEGINNING AROUND 18 
UTC THU AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 
48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY PROGS 10 TO 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA ALTHOUGH A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN C6FR3 IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA HAS BEEN REPORTING 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION A 
SHIP N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALSO 
REPORTING 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS IN 
THE SW CARIBBEAN DIMINISH.

$$
LEWITSKY