000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N85W TO 05N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N105W TO 
11N124W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N127W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 
102W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N140W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 28N W OF 
120W AS CAPTURED BY A RECENT 1922 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE RIDGE WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FRESH TRADES 
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
ARE FLARING ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 116W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 12N122W TO 07N128W AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM E AND 60 NM W OF TROUGH. 
ANOTHER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 14N138W TO W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 
11N W OF THE TROUGH. MIXED NE AND NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 96W...EXCEPT 
ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER WITH HEIGHTS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. THIS 
SWELL IS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MAINLY S OF 
10N.

E OF 110W...
N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT WHICH WERE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND 18 UTC ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT AS INDICATED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT 
IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT 
ARE ALSO IN PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AS THESE WINDS DIMINISH. 
SIMILARLY NE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WHICH 
HAVE BEEN FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN PASSES ALSO 
DIMINISH. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 08N85W. AN EARLIER WINDSAT 
PASS INDICATED WINDS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 KT AROUND THE LOW. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. A 1011 MB LOW IS 
NEAR 08N104W DRIFTING W. A 1604 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED WINDS OF 
20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. EARLIER ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SW 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW S OF ITCZ REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE... 
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FLOW WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W BY 18
UTC THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AROUND 00 UTC. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT AREA EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND 18 UTC THU AS 
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.

$$
LEWITSKY