000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG AXIS FROM 07N77W TO 08N85W TO 06N95W TO 11N125W TO 09N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...AND BETWEEN 122W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N145W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 23N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY N OF 12N W OF 125W. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FRESH TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THIS AREA. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE FLARING ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN ROUGHLY 120W AND 130W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW CONUS IS SUPPORTING NLY WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 27N E OF 125W TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JASON ALTIMETER PASSES ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 110W AND IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE TRADE WIND SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. E OF 110W... SHIP AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW WAS INTRODUCED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 08N104W...FORMED IN PART DUE TO FRESH 20 E FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...ORIGINATING FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...A 04Z ASCAT PASS AND A MORE RECENT 12Z WINDSAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A COMBINATION OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PULSE OF 20 KT FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY WED MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS CONDITIONS MODERATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE PAPAGAYO GAP FLOW AND MODERATE SW WINDS HAVE AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE OFF COSTA RICAN COAST THIS MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENING. THE SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW S OF ITCZ REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE..ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK TO 20 KT E OF 90W. ALTIMETER PASSES OVER THE PASS 24 HOURS INDICATE RESIDUAL MIXED NE AND NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER AN AREA FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE NE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AS THE TEHUANTEPEC FLOW DIMINISHES TODAY...AND AS THE REMAIN NW SWELL DECAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... A 05Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT NW TO N FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BEHIND THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW U.S. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. $$ EC