000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N82W TO 
06N90W TO 09N110W TO 11N115W TO 09N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 08.5N102W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.  

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN CONTINUES SW AND W TO 22N140W. 
ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
N OF 15N TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. A SECOND 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 10N105W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 29N139W DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
100W AND 130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. 
SOME MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 
88W.       

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE...ANCHORED ON A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 
33N142W...CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE 
TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY N OF 12N W OF 125W. AT THE SAME TIME...NLY 
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE BLOWING N OF 26N E OF 125W TO THE WEST COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND IS MIXING WITH SHORTER 
PERIOD NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS.
IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY LATE TUE. STRONG WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ARE 
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE TUE 
THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE 
DRAINING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
LATE TONIGHT.

$$
GR