000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N82W TO 
09N105W TO 11N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 09N102W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.  

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN TO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N116W 
TO 22N140W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SE OF THE 
TROUGH AND N OF 15N TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 10N110W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 29N141W DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 
130W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A 
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 
13N92W. SOME MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 02N TO 10N 
E OF 88W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE 
DISCUSSION AREA.      

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY NEAR 
THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE CONTINUES 
TO BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY N OF 12N W OF 
125W...WITH THE AFFECTED REGION EXPECTED TO SHRINK TO THE AREA 
FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 125W BY WED. LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND IS MIXING WITH SHORTER 
PERIOD NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS  
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE TUE. 
STRONG WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE TUE THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. 
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE DRAINING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

$$
GR