000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 04N78W TO 
12N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 04.5N78W AND ALSO 06.5N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 09N98W TO 09N114W TO 11N119W TO 09N126W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN TO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N119W 
TO 22N140W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO NEAR 20N104W TO OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 
10N110W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 10N117W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AMPLIFYING OVER NEW MEXICO AT 
33N109W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING MOSTLY MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 130W...WITH THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE UNDER THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW OLD MEXICO TO ALONG 31N. A THIN LINE 
OF UPPER MOISTURE PRECEDES THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS RACING E 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 13N78W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 
17N103W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED ROUGHLY BETWEEN 
98W AND 108W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING NE OVER OLD 
MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SOME MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED OVER 
THE PACIFIC FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 97W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION AREA.      

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY ALONG 
32N118W TO 25N140W. A RIDGE BRIDGES THIS DECAYING FRONT ALONG 
32N142W TO NEAR 15N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TRADE 
WINDS ROUGHLY N OF 10N W OF 125W...WITH THE AFFECTED AREA 
EXPECTED TO SHRINK TO THE AREA FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 125W BY WED. 
LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W 
AND IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS 
MORNING IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE TUE. STRONG WINDS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH LATE TUE THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 
15 TO 20 KT ARE DRAINING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

$$
NELSON