000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 
08N100W TO 10N115W TO 11N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W TO 104W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N120W THEN 
CONTINUES SW AND W TO BEYOND 23N140W. SW WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
DEEP TROPICS ALL THE WAY NE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. 
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO NW MEXICO INTO THE SW CONUS. TO 
THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PERSISTS AND EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N95W.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE 
ITCZ ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 24N 
W OF 125W...WHICH ARE INDICATED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS 
RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 27N E OF 125W TO THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD. 

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS W 
OF 105W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MIXING WITH MODERATE...SHORTER 
PERIOD TRADE WIND WAVES.

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS AND SHIP 
A8LL8 WHICH REPORTED 35 KT SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 14N96W. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY 
MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 35 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE MOST 
RECENT HI-ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF FONSECA...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
THERE IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.   

$$
GR