000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 
09N110W TO 12N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR 10N129W.   

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N120W THEN 
CONTINUES SW AND W TO BEYOND 23N140W. SW WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
DEEP TROPICS ALL THE WAY NE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO NW MEXICO INTO THE SW CONUS. TO 
THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PERSISTS AND CROSSES 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N95W.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE 
ITCZ ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 14N TO 22N 
W OF 126W...WHICH ARE INDICATED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT 
LEAST TUE MORNING WHILE EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR 125W. 

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS W 
OF 105W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...AND 
START TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY. 

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY 
MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE MOST 
RECENT HI-ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF FONSECA...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
THERE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.   

$$
GR