000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 10N120W TO 12N126W TO 08N140W.  ISOLATED 
CONVECTION MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 133W.  

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N130W TO 17N140W 
USHERS IN COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING BASIN.  DRY AIR MASS UNDER 
TROUGH AXIS BUT COLD FRONT BRINGS IN PLENTY OF IT RIDING IN 115 
KT JET CORE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ON EVEN STRONGER JET.  

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND FROM TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 
NWRN MEXICO SW TO EQUATOR AND 124W.  TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS 
ON NW SIDE OF RIDGE TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE 
CONSEQUENCE AS NO UPLIFT MECHANISMS ARE IN PLACE TO PROMPT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.  SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED FROM GULF 
OF MEXICO THROUGH SRN MEXICO TO 06N101W BRING MORE DRY AIR MASS 
INTO E PAC KEEPING ITCZ WITH MINOR POPS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION 
AND MAINTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA AT BAY E OF 
PANAMA.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT ENTERS E PAC BUT STALLS ALONG 30N WITH BARELY FRESH 
BREEZE BEHIND ITS BOUNDARY.  BROAD RIDGE 1028 MB IS SQUEEZED 
BETWEEN FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH FROM 15N127W TO 10N128W WITH AN 
EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRES...SUPPORTING STRONG NE BREEZE W OF 
TROUGH.  COLD FRONT MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY WIND POWER LEFT BUT DOES 
BRING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAINS SPREADING SE INTO BASIN W 
OF 110W.  SWELL BEGIN SUBSIDING LATE TUE. 

GAP WINDS...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON.   

STRONG WINDS OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN FUNNEL THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA PASSES BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE INTO GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.  FLOW DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE 
BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES