000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070239
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 
09N96W TO 09N110W TO 11N122W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N122W THEN 
CONTINUES SW TO 17N140W. A 50-60KT SW WIND MAX IS NOTED E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALL THE WAY NE TO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE TROUGH 
AXIS. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO NW MEXICO 
INTO THE SW CONUS. TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
10N95W.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N 
WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 125W BY LATE SUN. WINDS ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA BY LATE MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD AND PRES GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 18N124W TO 
10N125W. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N125W. SOME CYCLONIC 
TURNING IS ALSO NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD.  

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 
105W.

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE 
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA 
MEXICO HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE MOST RECENT 
WINDSAT PASS.

WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING FRESH 
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WHEN THE DRAINAGE FLOW CONVERGENCE OFF THE LAND IS AT A 
MAXIMUM. AT THIS TIME...WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT. 

$$
GR