000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 0988W 
TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 11N122W TO 08N140W. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 12N123.5W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N122W THEN 
CONTINUES SW TO 19N140W. A 50-70 KT SW WIND MAX IS NOTED E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALL THE WAY NE TO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH 
AXIS. DOWNSTREAM...A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO NW 
MEXICO. TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CROSSES 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N95W.

AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W 
TO 28N120W. AT THIS POINT...A FRONTAL TROUGH IS SEEN EXTENDING 
TO NEAR 22N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT/TROUGH. A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH 
PRESSURE ARE EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE 
COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 
125W BY SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
17N123W TO 110N126W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 12N.  

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 
105W.

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE 
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA 
MEXICO CONTINUES TO REPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 50 KT. A WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SEVERAL WIND 
BARBS OF 35 KT.

WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
PASSES BRINGING FRESH WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW 
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE DRAINAGE FLOW CONVERGENCE OFF 
THE LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM. AT THIS TIME...WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 
25 KT. 

$$
GR