000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N86W 7N95W 12N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 103W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 19N140W. A 
40-55 KT SW WIND MAX IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N140W TO 
23N128W 32N126W. A 200 NM BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS SE OF THE 
WIND MAX. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS INDICATED ON THE CIRRUS CLOUDS S 
OF 23N INDICATING POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE WIND MAX. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
27N114W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ E 
OF 120W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE SE U.S. ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N93W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
15N124W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BACK TO GALE 
FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N127W TO 25N132W 
THEN DISSIPATING TO 23N140W. OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS WITH AREAS 
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 105W.

$$
DGS