000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10.5N86W TO 
07.5N97W TO 10N106W TO 08.5N115W TO 11N124W TO 09.5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 
30N132W TO 25N140W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND 
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N126W TO 20N140W EARLY 
SAT THEN DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 135W BY EARLY SAT.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 18 TO 20 SECONDS... 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W BY THIS MORNING. 

FURTHER SOUTH...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF FRESH 
SW WINDS FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 94W IN RESPONSE TO RECENTLY 
UPGRADED HURRICANE TOMAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS TOMAS SHIFTS 
FURTHER FROM THE AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT 0312 UTC INDICATED WINDS OF 35 KT 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH THE LOW BIAS OF THE ASCAT 
DERIVED WINDS...WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT ARE LIKELY. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING...AND A STORM WARNING 
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. 

AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS INTO 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT...WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
AMERICA PASSES BRINGING FRESH WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY 
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
AL