000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N85W TO 
08N100W TO 11N122W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 30N138W AND EXTENDS MAINLY SOUTH TO NEAR 15N140W. A 
70-80 KT JETSTREAM IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N132W TO 
BEYOND 31N132W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 122W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS NEAR 29N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE N ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING N BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND TROUGH AXIS N OF ITCZ COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 
125W TO 132W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS CAN BE FOUND N OF 
THE ITCZ E OF 125W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SE 
U.S. TO CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 20N105W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N90W 
THEN NW TO 15N110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W. THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE 
TROUGH SUPPORTS IT. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE 
FRONT. A WEAKENING RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION N OF 
15N W OF 110W. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF 
THE TRADE WINDS BY FRI WHILE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE N 
WATERS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 18 TO 20 SECONDS... 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND WILL 
BECOME THE PREDOMINATE SWELL ALL WATERS W OF 100W FRI MORNING. 

FURTHER SOUTH...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
A SWATH OF FRESH SW WINDS FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 90W TO INCLUDE 
THE APPROACHES TO THE GULF OF PANAMA...IN RESPONSE TO T.S. TOMAS 
PUSHING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH 
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS TOMAS SHIFTS NE AND AS STRONG N WINDS PUSH 
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR THE SAME REASON...EXPECT FRESH 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY SAT.

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS 
OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT FROM 1700 TO 2300 UTC. WINDS HAVE 
SLIGHTLY DECREASED TO 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT DURING THE PAST TWO 
HOURS. THE NEW RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 30M WINDS 
REACHING 50 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND A STORM 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATER FRI...BUT 
THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD IN 
EXCESS OF 15 FT TONIGHT. A JASON PASS SHOWED SEAS UP TO 12 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N96W. THESE SHORTER 
PERIOD SEAS OUT OF THE NE WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW 
SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

$$
GR