000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 9N95W 12N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N139W TO 20N137W 
15N140W. A 65-75 KT JETSTREAM IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
29N134W TO 32N136W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 129W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 29N119W SW TO 25N124W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
STREAMING N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXIS N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
125W AND 133W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N 
OF THE ITCZ E OF 125W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE SE U.S. ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N95W THEN NW 
TO 15N110W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE FRI 
THEN BACK TO GALE FORCE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N135W TO 27N140W. OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS 
WITH AREAS OF RAIN ARE W OF THE FRONT.

$$
DGS