000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 
08N96W TO 09N105W TO 09N115W TO 12N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 
127W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LONGWAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA 
TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 15N IS DIGGING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
TO OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 26N135W WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 20N132W TO 24N140W BY LATE 
TODAY...FROM 30N124W TO 20N140W BY LATE FRI...THEN STALL AND 
DISSIPATE FROM 30N119W TO 20N125W SAT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE 
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS NW 
SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SAT. 
JASON ALTIMETER PASSES FROM 23Z AND 00Z INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 
14 FT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE WAVEWATCH III INITIALIZATION. 
THE FRONT EDGE OF THE SWELL IS A BROAD ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA SW TO 04N140W. WW3 INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE SWELL HAS 
PERIODS TO 19S. THE 00Z PASS SHOWED THE START OF REINFORCING NW 
SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT...WITH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT 
AND PERIODS OF 10 TO 14 SECONDS.

E OF 110W...
A SHIP REPORTED 30 KT N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
DENSER AIR FUNNELS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WED EVENING. 
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY. THE 
GFS SHOWS 30M WINDS REACHING 50 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW 
MORNING...AND A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME FOR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATER 
FRI...BUT THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 15 FT TODAY. THESE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS OUT OF 
THE NE WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO CREATE AN 
AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W. FURTHER SOUTH...ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF FRESH SW WINDS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 
100W TO INCLUDE THE APPROACHES TO THE GULF OF PANAMA...IN 
RESPONSE TO T.S TOMAS PUSHING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT AS TOMAS SHIFTS NE AND AS 
STRONG N WINDS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR THE SAME 
REASON...EXPECT FRESH FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM 
HERMOSILLO INDICATE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OUT OF THE NE UP TO 20 KT. 
THIS CONFIRMS MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWING FRESH NE THIS MORNING 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS DIMINISHING 
RAPIDLY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN