000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 10N85W TO 09N105W TO 
13N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS W OF 132W...AND NEAR 12N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N136W TO 16N140W.  
STRONG SLY WINDS IN THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE ARE BLOWING ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND 30N. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS AT 28N121W WITH A RIDGE TO THE S TO NEAR 15N120W 
AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE N OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A CUT-OFF 
LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 20N110W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR 
IS INDICATED TO THE W OF THE THIS TROUGH...ROUGHLY COVERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM TOMAS LOCATED OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 12N/13N TO 
NEAR 13N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE IS 
HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS PARTICULARLY N 
OF 15N W OF 110W. NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH 
THE CORRESPONDING NE SWELL MIXING WITH NW SWELL. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 16 FT HAVE MOVED 
INTO THE NW WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE IN 
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W THIS EVENING WITH 
REINFORCING NW SWELLS. EXPECT NW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT TO 
REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THU MORNING BECOMING 
THE PREDOMINATE SWELL ALL WATERS W OF 100W FRI MORNING. SW WINDS 
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH NLY WINDS OF 
20 KT WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM 
30N135W TO 25N140W THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS PRODUCING AN 
INCREASE IN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS BY FRI.

NW WINDS AT 20 ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.

SW WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 
08N E OF 98W. A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS 
VERIFIED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING N WINDS OF 
20 TO 30 KT THERE. IN ADDITION...IXTEPEC IN MEXICO IS REPORTING 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT...AND TO STRONG GALE FORCE THU 
MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. 

$$
GR