000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 12N88W TO 
12N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
12N87W TO 08N97W AND ALSO WITHIN 15 NM OF 12N124W AND 12N128W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N134W IS RACING N 
AND QUICKLY LOSING IDENTITY AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH 
APPROACHES WHILE BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT FROM 32N144W TO 
A BASE AT 10N137W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 16N118W 
WITH A RIDGE SW TO A CREST AT 12N132W AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS N 
AMPLIFYING N TO CREST BEYOND 35N122W AND JUST BEGINNING TO SPILL 
E OVER CALIFORNIA. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
124W AND 134W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION 
ADVECTED N ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO A WELL DEFINED 
PLUME WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 13N130W TO 25N130W TO 
BEYOND 32N127W.

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N95W TRAILS AN UPPER 
TROUGH SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO TO A BASE 
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 13N115W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
TO THE W OF THE THIS TROUGH...ROUGHLY COVERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 120W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS IS 
ESTIMATED NEAR OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 12N106W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY E OF 
98W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N 
BUT DRYING OUT AS IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.     

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT... 
AND INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE EARLY THU CONTINUING THROUGH 
SUNRISE SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. 

NW WINDS AT 20 ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N THIS 
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATER TODAY.
  
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED 
FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH THE CORRESPONDING NE SWELL MIXING 
WITH NW SWELL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE 
NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
AREA TONIGHT AND QUICKLY WASH OUT BY FRI. IN THE MEANTIME... 
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELLS HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE WATERS W OF A LINE 
FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 29N TO NEAR 10N125W 
RESULTING IN SEAS TO MAX OF ABOUT 16 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE WITH A REINFORCING NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONT...BUT THIS SECOND SURGE OF SWELLS WILL NOT BE AS 
LARGE. EXPECT NW SWELLS WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT TO MOVE INTO ALL 
WATERS W OF 105W FRI.

$$
NELSON