000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 10N86W TO 09N90W TO 
10N111W TO 13N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N127W WILL WEAKEN 
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. ASCAT DATA FROM 0536Z SHOWED A REMAINING AREA OF TRADE 
WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 125W. THESE TRADES WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. 
FRESH NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SHIFT SW OF 30N140W LATE TODAY...REACHING 
FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W BY LATE THU...AND FROM 30N123W TO 
22N140W BY LATE FRI. THE SWATH FROM A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 
AROUND 23Z SHOWED SEAS OF 10 TO 18 FT N OF 24N...PART OF A LARGE 
AREA OF NW SWELL PUSHING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. THE WAVEWATCH III INITIALIZED WITH THIS NW SWELL JUST 
REACHING GUADELOUPE ISLAND OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE 
TRAJECTORY OF THIS SWELL IS SUCH THAT GUADELOUPE ISLAND MAY 
BLOCK MUCH OF THIS SWELL FROM REACHING THE BAJA COAST S OF 27N. 
A SECOND REINFORCING SWELL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE NW...MAINTAINING A LARGE OF AREA OF 8 
TO 15 FT NW SWELL THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W BY 
LATE THU. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
THE TROUGH AT 125W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ...BEING VENTED BY SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
ALONG 139W PUSHING EASTWARD.

E OF 110W...
LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOW THE SW FLOW FROM 
05N TO 08N W OF 100W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PANAMA...STARTING 
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT...FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
MORNING...USHERING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY THU MORNING...WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z SHOWED FRESH NW FLOW PERSISTING IN THE 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLY ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS HIGH PRES 
REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FLOW 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
EAST.
  
$$
CHRISTENSEN