000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 10N85W TO 09N100W TO 
12N118W THEN RESUMES AT 11N124W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS W OF 132W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NEAR 12N122W AND NEAR 10N90W.   

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 
23N139W HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING 
ALONG 139W N OF 12N. STRONG SLY WINDS IN THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE 
ARE BLOWING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE 
TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO 
BEYOND 30N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 19N121W WITH A RIDGE 
MAINLY TO THE N TO NEAR 30N122W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND THE IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS CAN BE FOUND N OF 18N E OF 120W TO 
NW MEXICO. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTER OVER 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TO THE EAST...THERE IS A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO TO 20N110W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM TOMAS LOCATED 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 14N/15N 
TO NEAR 15N106W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS PARTICULARLY N 
OF 15N W OF 110W. NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W WITH 
THE CORRESPONDING NE SWELL MIXING WITH NW SWELL. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18 FT HAVE MOVED 
INTO THE NW WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE IN 
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W WED EVENING WITH 
REINFORCING NW SWELLS. EXPECT NW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT TO 
REACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WED MORNING...AND TO 
THE SOUTHERN TIP THU MORNING BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE SWELL ALL 
WATERS W OF 100W FRI MORNING. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH NLY WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 
90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND 
EXTENDS ALONG 122W FROM 10N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. 

GAP WINDS...
THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY 
WED MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY WED NIGHT.  
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY 
SAT MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 
KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS TO AROUND 14 FT. 

NW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NIGHT.

SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 05N E OF 81W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PANAMA PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION. 
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST 24 HOURS.
  
$$
GR