000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N110W TO 
11N119W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 23N139W 
WITH STRONG SLY WINDS IN THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE TO THE E OF THIS 
CUT-OFF LOW. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE  
FROM 10N TO 31N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
AT 17N118W WITH A RIDGE NW TO 28N125W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
31N115W. TO THE EAST...THERE IS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO TO 20N110W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM TOMAS LOCATED OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 15N TO NEAR
15N106W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 95W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W WITH THE CORRESPONDING NE SWELL MIXING 
WITH NW SWELL. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELLS HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE NW 
PORTION RESULTING IN SEAS TO MAX OF ABOUT 20 FT. THESE SWELLS 
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING 
AT 30N140W LATE WED WITH REINFORCING NW SWELLS. EXPECT NW SWELLS 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT TO REACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO THE SOUTHERN TIP LATE THU BECOMING THE 
PREDOMINATE SWELL ALL WATERS W OF 100W LATE FRI. S TO SW WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS ALONG 121W FROM 08N TO 
14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE 
TROUGH AND THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...
THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY 
WED MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY WED NIGHT.  
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY 
SAT MORNING. 

NW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE WED.

SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 07N E OF 80W INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PANAMA PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. 
  
$$
GR