000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N85W TO 
11N95W TO 09N103W TO 11N118W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 09N94W TO 12N90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF 
10N95W... AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N117W TO 
10N121W TO 09N127W TO 10N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 22N141W WITH UPPER 
MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N TO 17N BETWEEN 133W AND 
141W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 16N115W WITH A RIDGE NW TO 
28N132W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 
132W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION NEAR 10N130W 
ADVECTED NW MERGING WITH A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME 
STREAMING IN FROM W OF THE AREA ALONG 07N142W TO 14N133W TO 
27N128W...WHERE IT FANS OUT AND NEARLY EVAPORATES.   

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N E OF 
120W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 120W AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION S 
OF 08N IN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS NEAR 14N72W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 14N 
TO A CREST AT 106W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 98W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N BUT DRYING OUT AS IT MOVES OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA.     

GAP WINDS...
THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE WED AS QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
BY SUNSET WED WITH GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE SAT. 

NW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE WED.
  
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED 
FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 120W WITH THE CORRESPONDING NE SWELL MIXING 
WITH NW SWELL RESULTING IN CROSS SEAS. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELLS 
HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE NW PORTION RESULTING IN SEAS TO MAX OF 
ABOUT 20 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE IN ADVANCE 
OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE WED WITH REINFORCING NW 
SWELLS. EXPECT NW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT TO REACH NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...AND TO THE SOUTHERN TIP 
LATE THU BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE SWELL ALL WATERS W OF 100W 
LATE FRI.

$$
NELSON