000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020917 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 11N92W TO 08N103W TO 12N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W TO 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 35N129W. FURTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 16N ALONG 116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS FLOW FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 115W AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TRADES IS SUPPORTING SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. A 04Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF NW TO N 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH THE TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...NW SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA STARTING TODAY. NW SWELL UP TO 20 FT WITH PERIODS TO 19 SECONDS WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DECAY TO 8 TO 15 FT BY WED AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY EARLY WED. E OF 110W... LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES MODERATE S TO SW WINDS S OF 08N E OF 100W. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE TODAY...FLOWING INTO T.S. TOMAS AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC STARTING BY EARLY THU MORNING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... A 04Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S...IT IS LIKELY THE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ACTIVE FURTHER NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. $$ CHRISTENSEN