000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 09N96W TO 11N117W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 97W 
AND 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SNAKES FROM N CENTRAL TEXAS TO 
27N110W THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 30N133W TO WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CUT OFF VORTEX AT 21N140W THEN TO 0N140W.   
VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 180-210 NM ALONG AXIS.  SWATH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE RIDING ON 60 KT JET CORE TRAPPED 
BETWEEN VORTEX AND DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AT 17N106W IS ONLY 
TRACE OF HUMIDITY ALOFT...REMAINDER OF BASIN REMAINS DOMINATED 
BY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS CURTAILING CONVECTION...EXCEPT SOME 
MINOR FLARE UP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 08N119W TO 
13N114W.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW SW SECTOR OF ANTICYCLONE 
PERIPHERY PROMPTING MINOR FLARE OF CONVECTION W OF TROUGH AXIS.
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 31N130W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
16N106W TIGHTENS GRADIENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH SUPPORTING 
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.  HIGH 
PRES FORCED E OVER NEXT 48 HRS BY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH CENTRAL PAC WHICH WILL EASE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER WITH STRONG S-SW BREEZE 
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BUT BARELY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND IT 
AT LEAST WHILE S OF 30N...MUCH STRONGER N OF 30N.  MAIN FEATURE 
WITH FRONT IS LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING SE ACROSS 
MOST OF E PAC W OF 110W.  SHIP REPORTS OF SEAS UP TO 20 FT HAVE 
BEEN RECEIVED AND NWW3 GUIDANCE APPEARS RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH 
HEIGHTS.

FRESH BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES E...BUT FRESH NW WINDS FORECAST 
TO POP INSIDE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WINDS ARE FUNNELS ALONG 
COAST.  

GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES STRONG COLD N WINDS ACROSS 
CHIVELAS PASS LATE TUE PROMPTING NEXT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES