000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 09N100W TO 12N114W TO 07N134W TO 07N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SNAKES FROM N CENTRAL TEXAS 
THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 30N130W TO WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CUT OFF VORTEX AT 11N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 
150-180 NM ALONG AXIS.  SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE 
RIDING ON 70 KT JET CORE TRAPPED BETWEEN VORTEX AND DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONE AT 18N109W IS ONLY TRACE OF HUMIDITY ALOFT... 
REMAINDER OF BASIN REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS 
CURTAILING CONVECTION ...EXCEPT SOME MINOR FLARE UP ALONG 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 08N118W TO 13N114W.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENT FLOW SW SECTOR OF ANTICYCLONE PERIPHERY PROMPTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 33N128W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
17N117W TIGHTENS GRADIENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH SUPPORTING 
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 121W AND 138W.  HIGH 
PRES FORCED E OVER NEXT 48 HRS BY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH CENTRAL PAC WHICH WILL EASE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER WITH STRONG S-SW BREEZE 
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BUT BARELY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND IT 
...AT LEAST WHILE S OF 30N...MUCH STRONGER N OF 30N.  MAIN 
FEATURE WITH FRONT IS LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING SE 
ACROSS MOST OF E PAC W OF 110W.  SHIP REPORTS OF SEAS UP TO 20 
FT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AND NWW3 GUIDANCE APPEARS RIGHT ON THE 
MONEY WITH HEIGHTS.

FRESH BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES E...BUT FRESH NW WINDS FORECAST 
TO POP INSIDE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WINDS ARE FUNNELS ALONG 
COAST.  

GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES STRONG COLD N WINDS ACROSS 
CHIVELAS PASS LATE TUE PROMPTING NEXT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES