000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W TO 11N112W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
18N106W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS FLOW FROM 
11N TO 21N BETWEEN 122W AND 136W AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST 
ASCAT PASS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISH THE TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...NW SWELL GENERATED BY 
STRONG WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE 
AREA STARTING TUE. NW SWELL UP TO 20 FT WITH PERIODS TO 19 
SECONDS WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE 
MORNING. THIS WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE NORTHERN 
BAJA COAST BY EARLY WED.

E OF 110W...
LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES MODERATE S TO SW WINDS S OF 08N E OF 
100W. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...FLOWING INTO T.S. 
TOMAS AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT...WITH 
GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC STARTING WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TUE AND WED.


$$
AL