000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 10N110W TO 08N120W TO 10N134W TO 
09N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE RAPIDLY OVER NW PORTION WITH ITS AXIS 
FROM 32N120W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 23N139W...THEN CONTINUE S TO 
11N140W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITHIN 5-6 DEG AHEAD OF 
AXIS.  DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE OVER TROPICAL PAC AT 16N108W WITH 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 15N126W HAS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG LINE FROM 15N106W 
TO 13N119W AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 
115W.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N AND NE ALONG RIDGE 
PERIPHERY HEADING TOWARDS NW MEXICO AND SW CONUS.  RIDGE ALSO 
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW FOR MINOR CONVECTION ALONG WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 110W FROM 07N-14N.

CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E 
PAC ALONG ITCZ LATITUDES...BUT AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY S OF 
ITCZ CURTAILING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1023 MB CENTERED AT 30N128W 
HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 16N114W.  PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT 
ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST RESULTING IN FRESH NW WINDS WITHIN 
180 NM OF COAST AND INSIDE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N. 

HEALTHY COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN BRINGING NEW SET 
OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON.  SEAS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD CLOSE TO 20 FT AND SPREAD SE ACROSS E PAC TO 
COVER WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE TUE.   

$$
WALLY BARNES