000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM  10N84W TO 08N93W TO 11N112W TO 08N120W TO 11N128W TO 
10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES NW PORTION WITH AXIS ENTERING 
AREA AT 32N122W EXTENDING SW TO 12N136W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS W 
OF AXIS.  UPPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AXIS RIDES A FIVE DEGREE SWATH 
ON 55 KT JET CORE TOWARDS THE NE TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
JUST AHEAD OF WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 30N116W 
TO 24N128W.  UPPER LEVELS APPEAR FAIRLY DRY N OF 17N E OF 
MOISTURE SWATH.  

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 14N98W BRINGS TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ LATITUDES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY.  MODEST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT CAUSED BY ANTICYCLONE 
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ FROM 96W TO 114W BUT DIMINISHES AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORCE NE 
BY INCOMING DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BRINGS 
SHORT TERM SURGE OF NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SAT NIGHT WITH FRESH BREEZE 
BARELY LASTING 24 HRS.

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DIMINISH 
TONIGHT AND BE BELOW 20 KT EARLY MON.  FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE 
ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN 
DIMINISH.

$$
WALLY BARNES