000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N85W TO 08N101W TO 11N108W TO 10N116W TO 13N124W TO 
09N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N126W TO 
17N140W USHERING COLD FRONT INTO NW PORTION OF BASIN.  TROUGH 
LIFT NE SAT ALLOWING FRONT TO STALL SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED N RIDING ON 125 KT JET CORE 
IN THE PATH OF HEALTHY 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRES APPROACHING 
CALIFORNIA COAST.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD BE 
EXPECTED OUT OF THE MERGER OF THESE FEATURES.  ELSEWHERE... 
OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM 
W OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER 
SIDE OF FRONT.  MAIN PROBLEM IS LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 15 FT 
BEHIND FRONT SPREADING SE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD SUBSIDING BY 
LATE SUN.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ITCZ FROM 13N TO 18N ALONG 123W 
WITH FRESH NE WINDS WITH 60 NM W OF TROUGH.  WEAK 1015 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTER FORCED SE BY COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS TO 1019 MB BY 
SAT AND SUN AS COLD FRONT DISSIPATE AND ALLOWS FOR WEAK TRADES 
TO CONTINUE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E OVER FAR W TEXAS ALLOWS 
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INTRUDE INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ LATITUDE WITH 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING E OF 121W.  ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY  
AIR PREVALENT UNDER RIDGE N OF 15N FROM 110W TO 120W.

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS SURGING ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 
CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  GALE FORCE WINDS BEGAN 
EARLIER LAST NIGHT EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 40 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT 
MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT. 
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 14 FT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING THEN 
SUBSIDE LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

$$
WALLY BARNES