000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
09N80W 10N86W 08N100W 11N116W 08N133W 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS FROM 06N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 107W.

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 13N117W TO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N119W TO 08N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N141W TO 14N134W.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N137W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS NEAR 21N111W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W. 

A COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 124W REACHING GALE FORCE TO THE NORTH OF 30N.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A NEW TRAIN OF LARGE LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS...AS HIGH AS 14 FT...SPREADING 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN TO THE NORTH OF 13N. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS FOR MORE THAN 
48 HRS. 

A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS. IT WILL FORCE A NEW
TRAIN OF HIGHER SWELLS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ONSET OF STRONG NORTHERLY TEHUANTEPEC WINDS JUST AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A PRELUDE OF THE NEXT GALE EVENT
FOR THAT AREA. 

$$
MT