000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 11N85W TO 08N90W TO 12N113W TO 09N124W TO 
10N136W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTING WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN  90 NM NW OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TUTT AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N95W W 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO THEN W-NW TO 24N120W THEN W-SW TO A W 
MOVING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 21N133W TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
NEAR 14N138W. CUTTING OFF NEAR 21N131W WITH THE TROUGH 
CONTINUING SW INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 14N138W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED N OF THIS AXIS ALONG 29N126 AND 
EXTENDED W BEYOND 140W AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
N CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONIC WAS CENTERED S OF 
THE TUTT AXIS NEAR 18N116W AND CONNECTED TO ITS E WITH A LARGE 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW N OF 30N IS VERY PROGRESSIVE PRESENTLY AND WILL 
STRETCH THE TUTT AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO E AND SE...AND 
FORCE THE TUTT TO FRACTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO BY MID WEEK. 
MEANWHILE THE UPPER CYCLONES ANCHORING THE TUTT ACROSS W 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INTO A RELATIVELY 
SHARP N TO S ALIGNED  TROUGH ALONG 136-138W AND ALLOW UPPER 
RIDGING TO OCCUR TO THE E OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH. A STRONG 
AND DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PACIFIC 
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND USHER A SIGNIFICANT 
COLD FRONT INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDED NEARLY W TO E ALONG 29N ACROSS 
NW PORTIONS. A BENIGN COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO NE PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA...E OF THE RIDGE...WITH COOL DRY AIR IN GALE FORCE 
WINDS SPREADING FROM OFFSHORE OF SRN CALIFORNIA S-SE TO OFFSHORE 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 24N..WHERE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20-25 
KT. MIXED NW SWELL MOVING INTO THESE WATERS CURRENTLY IS 
PRODUCING COMBINES SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT N OF 26N THAT WILL SPREAD 
S TO 21N BY THU NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE END 
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRESH NWLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS 
THESE WATERS THROUGH TUE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING RATHER 
QUICKLY AS THE HIGH COLLAPSES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING NW PORTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. 

S AND SE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 29N...MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
TRADES OF 20-25 KT WERE PRESENT FROM THE ITCZ N TO ABOUT 24N AND 
W OF 120W DUE TO A MODEST PRES GRADIENT. MONSOONAL SW TO W FLOW 
CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL EPAC E OF 110W...WITH SW 
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT E OF 100W. THIS MODERATE SWLY FLOW TO 20 
KT  WILL CONTINUE S OF 09-10N AND E OF 95W THROUGH THU...WITH 
HIGHEST SEAS TO 8 FT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY WEEKS END.

$$
STRIPLING