000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 13N107W TO LOW PRES 10.5N114W 1010 MB TO 09N122W TO LOW PRES 09N133W 1012 MB TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 97W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN LOW AT 10.5N114W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH HAS SWEPT E ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TEXAS THE PAST 24 HOURS AND EXTENDED FROM LOUISIANA SW ACROSS N MEXICO AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 21N123W TO 16N135W THEN CONTINUED W-NW TO A BROAD DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CENTERED JUST SW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES PREVAILED ON EACH SIDE OF THIS MEANDERING UPPER TROUGH...WITH A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 31N138W...AND ASSOCIATED RIDGES EXTENDING E ALONG 30N TO SW TEXAS AND W-SW TO BEYOND 165W. S OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 11N146W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING E TO 130W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDED W ALONG ABOUT 16N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO AND INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 14N123W. THE S/W SWEEPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE EWD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE THE ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS THE EPAC RETROGRADES W TO ALONG 136W...STRETCHING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A NARROW TUTT...AND ALLOWING FOR THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE TO EXPAND WWD TO 130W. A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE WAS OBSERVED NEAR SPANNING THE EQUATOR CENTERED NEAR 00N126W AND MOVING SLOWLY W WITH TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 09N110W AND THEN CONTINUES E ALONG 09N TO 100W. THIS CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N AND BECOME LINKED WITH THE ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE TO PRODUCE A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH W OF 120W...THAT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY N AND NE BY LATE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL INDUCE UPPER LEVEL WLYS CENTERED ON THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 130W AND 100W BY LATE WED...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORCED EWD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N149W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 19N117W. A VERY DRY COLD FRONT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF THIS RIDGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO SINK SE AROUND THE E END OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW NWLY FLOW TO SPILL S OVER THE E END OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER STRONG N WINDS DO NOT ARRIVE ALONG 30N TILL TONIGHT REACHING ALONG 24N E OF 125W LATE TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS TO 16 FT NEAR 30N120W. IN THE MEANTIME THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 123W. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SHIFT N AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N MON NIGHT. SW MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES S OF 10N E OF 110W WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 97W. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLY FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE ATLC BASIN WILL ALLOW THE ITCZ ACROSS THE FAR EPAC TO LIFT N TO ALONG 10N E OF 90W...WITH THE SWLY MONSOON FLOW TO BECOME S TO SW. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N90W BY MID WEEK. $$ STRIPLING