000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 10N102W TO LOW 1011 MB NEAR 08N118W TO LOW 1011 MB NEAR 10N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDS WSW FROM SRN NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N115W TO 21N125W TO 20N137W. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH A NEUTRAL POINT NEAR 14N113W TO AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N143W. MODERATE W WINDS OF 40-60 KT ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE TUTT AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 19-21N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF THE TUTT AXIS FROM NLY WINDS CRESTING ON THE E SIDE OF A BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N150W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND CAUSE THE TUTT TO PINCH OFF A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 17N133W MON WHICH DRIFTS W TO 18N138W TUE. SURFACE AND MARINE... UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N143W DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NW TONIGHT AND MON. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 125W. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS IN THE AREA BY TUE. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE E OF 105W...WITH FRESH SW WINDS EVIDENT BETWEEN 06N AND 08N S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A PUSH OF COLD AIR DIVING S BRINGS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE SUBTROPICS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S OF 30N TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WITH WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWING SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO NEAR 17 FT TUE AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 12 FT BY WED NIGHT. $$ MUNDELL