000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 10N98W TO 13N104W TO 
08N118W TO 10N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E TO 90W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC N OF 20N W OF 118W THIS MORNING...AS AN E TO W HIGH PRES 
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 
25N132W.  S OF THIS RIDGE AREA AREA OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT NE TO 
E TRADEWINDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE 
HIGH BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 21N W OF 118W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT SLOWLY NW AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COLD 
FRONT DROPS SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SRN CALIFORNIA AND 
THE BAJA PENINSULA MON AND TUE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE 
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ ACROSS SW PORTIONS THROUGH TUE...WHILE 20-25 
KT NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SPREAD S TO 26N...ACCOMPANIED 
BY QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS IN NW SWELL. 

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE 
MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...WITH CONVECTION NOTED S OF THE ITCZ E OF 90W IN THE 
SWLY FLOW...WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 
MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W  AND NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
THIS TROUGH REALIGNS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOIST SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IN 
THE CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE OBSERVED FOR MUCH 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT 
WITH THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA AS SEEN IN 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  

ELSEWHERE MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT 
IN NW SWELL. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 36 
HOURS BEFORE THE NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL ENTERS THE AREA.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO 
THROUGH 24N118W THEN TRAILS W-SW AND THEN W IN A TUTT LIKE  
FASHION TO JUST S OF HAWAII. THE NW WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH  
CLOUDINESS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERALLY PREVAILS  S 
OF THIS  TROUGH BETWEEN 20N AND 10N...WITH SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS 
IN THE TROUGH AXIS...AND UPPER LEVEL ELYS ACTING TO VENTILATE 
ITCZ CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY W OF 128W.

$$
STRIPLING