000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N80W TO 09N107W TO 07N117W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W AND 
E OF 85W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC THIS EVENING.  ONLY TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE ON THE 
MAP CURRENTLY AND VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO BE FOUND.  A 
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N136W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.  SOME 20 KT NE 
TO E TRADEWINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE 
HIGH BETWEEN 09N AND 20N W OF 125W.  AS THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED 
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AS WILL 
THE MODERATE TRADES.  THE ONLY OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST 
CURRENTLY IS A WEAK 1011 MB LOW AT 10N131W WHICH IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ.  THE WEAK LOW IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 
ABOUT A DAY AS IT GETS REABSORBED BACK INTO THE ITCZ.

THE 18Z GLOBAL MODELS...GFS AND NOGAPS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR.  
HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOIST SW MONSOONAL FLOW FROM 
THE PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IN THE CARIBBEAN... 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE OBSERVED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
INCREASE OF MOISTURE NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  THE SW MONSOONAL WINDS ARE ALSO 
INDUCING SEAS UP TO 9 FT S OF 13N E OF 110W...WHICH SHOULD 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THERE WILL BE SOME NW TO N SURFACE 
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING 
EVENING HOURS.  LATE ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A  
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR REGION.  OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE 
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 125W AND 140W NEAR OUR 
NORTHERN BORDER AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

ELSEWHERE MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING 8 TO 9 FT NW 
SWELL.  THIS SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS 
BEFORE THE NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL ENTERS THE AREA.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESENT ALONG 
31N113 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N140W AND WESTWARD TO S OF 
HAWAII.  THE NW WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE 
ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS SOUTHWARD.  
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO 
10N140W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH GENERALLY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

$$
LANDSEA