000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 07N88W TO 10N102W TO 
08N116W TO 09N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON.  ONLY TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE ON THE 
MAP CURRENTLY AND VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO BE FOUND.  A 
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N129W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
EAST-WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.  SOME 20 KT NE TO E 
TRADEWINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH 
BETWEEN 09N AND 18N W OF 125W.  AS THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO 
AMPLIFY IN PLACE...THE MODERATE TRADES WILL BE SLIGHTLY 
ENHANCED...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE.  THE 
ONLY OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST CURRENTLY IS A WEAK 1012 
MB LOW AT 10N130W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 12N124W TO 08N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE... 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS W OF 133W.  THE WEAK LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN ABOUT A DAY AS IT GETS REABSORBED BACK INTO THE ITCZ.

THE GLOBAL MODELS...GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET...DO 
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 10N89W IN 
ABOUT A DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.  
HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO 
HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IF THE LOW 
DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN IT MAY ENHANCE RAIN IN EL SALVADOR... 
NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.  THESE LATTER TWO COUNTRIES ARE 
ALREADY BEING IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SW MONSOONAL WINDS ARE ALSO INDUCING SEAS UP 
TO 9 FT S OF 12N E OF 110W...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THERE WILL BE SOME NW TO N SURFACE 
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING 
EVENING HOURS.  LATE ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A  
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR REGION.

ELSEWHERE MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING 8 TO 9 FT NW 
SWELL.  THIS SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS 
BEFORE A NEW ROUND OF SWELL ENTERS THE AREA.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESENT ALONG 
31N113 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N140W AND WESTWARD TO S OF 
HAWAII.  THE NW WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE 
ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS SOUTHWARD.  
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO 
10N140W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH GENERALLY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

$$
LANDSEA