000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO 09N93W TO 10N104W TO 08N115W TO 10N127W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 07N E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING. AN ELONGATED AND NARROW HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N148W E-NE TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 29N...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING E TO 105W. NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING S OF THE HIGH W OF 121W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WITH THE THE 20 KT TRADES WILL EXPAND TO 23N W OF 130W. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NW...IT ALSO BUILD EWD TO ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND INCREASE NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W COAST THERE. TO THE SE OF THIS RIDGE...CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES E OF 115W...WITH A NARROW ELONGATED ZONE OF 20 KT WINDS FROM 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 95W TO THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT... BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FAR TROPICAL EPAC HAS EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE ACROSS THE SW AND W CARIBBEAN...OF WHICH TROPICAL STORM RICHARD HAS BEEN EMBEDDED. AS RICHARD AND THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS....THE SWLY FLOW INTO PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND S PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA COULD BECOME ENHANCED AND TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LEADING TO PERIODS OF CONTINUED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS. TOO...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 88/89W THAT MAY SHIFT E AND NE AND INTO COASTAL NICARAGUA. AT PRESENT...STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS AREA...BUT AN OVERNIGHT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. REGARDLESS...THIS MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AND COMBINE WITH SRN HEMI SW SWELL TO MAINTAINS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 90W. MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 10N W OF 115W IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LOOK FOR THIS NW SWELL TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED ALONG NW MEXICO EXTENDING SW TO 20N114W. HOWEVER GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BELOW THIS FEATURE WHERE INHIBITING FROM PRODUCING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT OR SURFACE FEATURES. TRAILING OFF TO THE W AND SW OF THIS SHORTWAVE WAS A TUTT LIKE TROUGH ORIENTED ENE-WSW FROM 26N122W TO 22N133 TO S OF HAWAII...AND WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE... THE REGION IS DOMINATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS BY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 14N E OF 136W. A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT PERSISTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE ELYS S OF THE RIDGE WERE AIDING IN VENTING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 105W. CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW E OF 95W WAS ACTING TO CREATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE WEAKER ELY FLOW THERE. $$ STRIPLING