000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221010 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI OCT 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 09N108W TO 12N122W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 94W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. ENTERS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 30N120W...AND STRETCHES SW TO 26N130W AND CONTINUES W-SW TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND WAS MOVING E ABOUT 10 KT...STRETCHING FROM 30N127W T0 26N134W...THEN A WEAKENING FRONT TO 24N140W. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER TO THE NW OF THE FRONT SEAS WERE 9 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELLS WHILE WITHIN 210 NM SE OF FRONT SEAS WERE TO 8 FT ALSO IN NW SWELLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING... THE FRONT WILL THE QUICKLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NE WATERS BEFORE REACHING N PORTIONS OF THE BAJA...AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS AT WHICH TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELLS N OF 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 123W. S OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A VERY PRONOUNCED JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 22N140W...AND EXTENDS E-NE TO 24N125W WHERE IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-90 KT. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DERIVED FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IS PRESENT WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH AS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED S AND SE OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 10N AND 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 145W...AND SEPARATES UPPER LEVEL WLYS FROM UPPER LEVEL ELYS ACROSS THE TROPICS. PRESENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WAS CREATING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 130W AND 150W... ACROSS THE FAR WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH THE TRAILING JETSTREAM FORECAST TO ERODE THIS UPPER RIDGE...AND WEAKEN IT AS IT SHIFTS E OF 125W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WELL E OF THE AREA EXTENDED SW ACROSS THE NE AND S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 16N96W WHERE A COL REGION IS OBSERVED. AT LOW LEVELS...A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC E OF 90W NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO TROPICAL STORM RICHARD...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE NE END OF THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE BLOSSOMING CENTRAL CORE OF CONVECTION OVER RICHARD...AND IS LEADING TO AN INTENSIFICATION TREND. SW MONSOONAL FLOW TO NEAR 20 KT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EPAC TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF THE TROUGH E OF 94W INDUCING DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL ELYS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO W-NW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SHIFT THIS MONSOONAL TROUGH SLOWLY W AS WELL...AND ACT TO EXPAND THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW W TO 110W BY SUN. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT MORE NELY INTO PANAMA ...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA DURING THIS TIME AND LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE CNVTN AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK 1021 MB HIGHS WERE CENTERED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS N PORTIONS. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THESE HIGHS WAS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES S OF 19N W OF 132W...WHERE SEAS WERE 8 FT. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER E THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGH WILL MERGE INTO A E TO W RIDGE AND ACT TO EXPAND THE FRESH NELY TRADES EASTWARD TO 125W...WHERE SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 9 FT IN BUILDING NE WIND WAVES. THIS REALIGNING RIDGE WILL ALSO WILL INDUCE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH NW TO N WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST N OF 24N...WHILES SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE...MERGING NW AND SRN HEMI SW LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND MAINTAIN SEAS NEAR 7 FT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS...IN THE ABSENCE OF 20 KT TRADES. $$ STRIPLING