000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220256 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N98W 8N108W 10N120W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 85W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAST APPROACHING THE WESTERN U.S. ENTERS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N124W...AND STRETCHES SW TO 26N130W AND TO W OF THE AREA AT 24N140W. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING E ABOUT 20 KT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N129W TO 27N131W...THEN IS WEAKENING TO 23N140W. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER TO THE NW OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELLS WHILE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT ALSO IN NW SWELLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH RACES EASTWARD TO INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRI EVENING...THE FRONT WILL THE QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM 30N126W TO 26N132W TO 24N140W IN 24 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS AT WHICH TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELLS N OF 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 123W. A VERY PRONOUNCED JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 22N140W...AND STRETCHES NE TO 24N130W WHERE IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND CONTINUES EASTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-90 KT. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DERIVED FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IS PRESENT WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH AS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE IS NOTED AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS. A MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD HAS JUST MOVED INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 114W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N113W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 14N TO W OF THE AREA ...AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 131W IS ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 131W. THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL TO DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 15N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN DRY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THE S OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM MOISTURE PLUME...WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NOTED THERE ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WELL E OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ITS AXIS SW TO A BASE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W WHERE A COL REGION IS OBSERVED. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO NEAR 14N95W. TO S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 14N...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AS WELL AS THAT ALONG MUCH OF PANAMA AS STATED UNDER ITCZ. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 27N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 23N122W AND TO 21N114W. NE TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 124W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO NEAR 27N134W IN 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY IT AND LOW PRESSURE WITH THE ITCZ WILL MAINTAIN THE AREA OF NE TRADES WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL DURING THIS TIME. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 18N...THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND INTO 48 HOURS WITH NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST N OF 24N. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THOSE WATERS. FINALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO 102W IN 24 HOURS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 10 FT IN SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 112W AS SUGGESTED BY WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE