000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 07N106W TO 10N120W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W.  
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OFF COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N120W MOVE SE 15 KT.  CYCLONIC FLOW S 
OF VORTEX BRINGS MOIST 100 KT JET CORE INTO BASIN WITH GOOD 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SURFACE LOW PRES IN SW ARIZONA COULD 
PROMPT MORE RAINFALL THAN NORMAL. 

BROAD RIDGE COVER LARGE PART OF BASIN MAINTAINING MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDING AIR DRY MASS  S OF 20N FROM 90W TO 135W.  RIDGE 
ALSO ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS N OF 10N W OF 135W.  CARIBBEAN RIDGE DRIFTED E AND SOME 
MINOR MOISTURE GETTING INTO E PAC E OF 87W BUT HAS LITTLE 
UPLIFT. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH CROSSED W OF 140W.  FRESH SE WIND E OF TROUGH 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE TODAY.  BROAD HEALTHY 
RIDGE 1016 MB OVER NW CORNER OF BASIN EXPECTED TO YIELD TO 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES 140W LATE WED.  STRONG NW 
BREEZE FORECAST BEHIND FRONT.

$$
WALLY BARNES